The rate has dropped in three of the four seasons he has played at least 80 games.ĭavis isn’t alone in seeming to suffer after the Home Run Derby, when, in fact, that difference in statistics can be explained otherwise.įor this study, we compared the first and second halves of players who qualified for the batting title in both halves and finished tied for 50th or better in total home runs in the first half. In his career, he has an average drop of 6.3 percentage points in his HR/FB numbers from the first half to the second half. Davis has a career HR/FB rate of 22.3 percent. Per the advanced baseball data site, Davis had a home-run-per-fly-ball ratio (HR/FB) of 35.6 percent in the first half of 2013, whereas that number was 21.3 percent in the second half. Additionally, Davis’s walk percentage rose from 9.9 percent to 11.7 percent in the second half, which is an indication he saw fewer good pitches to hit and thus had fewer opportunities to hit home runs.Īnother stat that relates to home runs supports the regression theory. This rise of 3.2 AB/HR seems large, but the top home-run hitters from the first half experienced an overall rise of 4.8 AB/HR from the first half to the second half. In the second half, Davis hit a home run every 12.9 at-bats, still No. In the first half, Davis was hitting a home run every 9.7 at-bats, tops in the MLB among hitters who qualified for the batting title in both halves of the season. Data from the 2009 to 2013 seasons shows that although derby participants’ second-half stats do, on average, fall off, participants actually outperform the other top home-run hitters from the first half of the season.Ĭonsider the difference between the first and second halves of Davis’s 2013 season. And Bobby Abreu famously blamed the derby when he had fell back to Earth in the second half of the 2005 season.īut here’s the more likely culprit in these post-derby declines: regression to the mean. We heard a similar story when Josh Hamilton’s HR production fell after the 2008 derby. The decline in Davis’s power numbers fueled the belief that participating in the Home Run Derby alters a player’s swing in the second half of the season. After the Derby, Davis’s season took a turn for the worse he hit 16 home runs and battled with an injury on his hand - a blister he popped during the derby. Naturally, Davis was selected for the Home Run Derby, placing fourth. He had slugged 37 home runs, driven in 93 runs and had an enviable 1.109 OPS. One of them is likely to have a more disappointing second half of the season, and someone is then likely to blame the derby.Ĭase in point: At the MLB All-Star break in 2013, Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles had a stat line fit for a king. On Monday night, some of baseball’s best sluggers will compete in the Home Run Derby.
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